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Le Mans FC vs Auxerre

Fri 09 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Le Mans FC win: 40.4%

Draw: 25.9%

Auxerre win: 33.7%

Predicted: Le Mans FC

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 42.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.7

More corners: Auxerre (46.9% home / 53.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Auxerre

Yes

Probability Auxerre wins or draws: 55.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Auxerre win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (55.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.